Conference Board Indicates United States May Be In Recession

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Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the United States fell by 0.3 percent in August 2022 to 116.2 after dropping by 0.5 percent in July. The LEI fell 2.7 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2022, a reversal from its 1.7 percent growth over the prior six months. According to Conference Board Senior Director of Economic Ataman Ozyildirim, the decline potentially signals that the United States is moving into a recession. Read the full report here.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said its manufacturing survey for Midwest states continued to decelerate in September, but growth remained slightly positive. The bank’s composite index was +1 this month, the lowest reading since July 2020, and down from +3 in August. The slower pace was driven by decreased activity at durable goods plants, especially for electrical, furniture, nonmetallic mineral, primary metal, fabricated metal, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Read the full report here.
• According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 213,000 individuals filed for federal unemployment benefits during the week that ended September 17, an increase of 5,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was 216,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the week before. During the week that ended September 10, 1.379 million people continued to receive jobless benefits, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was 1,404,750, a decline of 8,250 from the week before.
• In other economic news: Retail sales in Canada fell 2.5 percent to $61.3 billion in July as sales were declined in nine of the 11 subsectors; the number of housing starts, or new homes under construction in the United States rose 12.2 percent from July 2022 to August 2022 and 3.4 percent from August 2021 to August 2022; and Canada’s consumer price index rose seven percent from August 2021 to August 2022. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 6.3 percent year over year in August. While that number was still very high, it was the first month since June 2021 that the year-over-year CPI, excluding gasoline, had slowed. Read the full report here.