IMF Cuts Estimates For Global Growth In 2023

Connecting the Dots monitors all major U.S. and Canadian economic announcements, but MSCI also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. You can find our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Economic Opportunity and Risk Tracker on our website. Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its 2023 outlook for the world economy to 2.7 percent for 2023. The previous estimate was for 2.9 percent growth. The IMF cited Russia’s war in Ukraine, chronic inflation, higher interest rates, and the lingering consequences of the global pandemic for its decision. The IMF’s 2023 growth estimate in Canada shrank to 1.5, down three-tenths of a percentage point from the last estimate made in July. The IMF only expects the U.S. economy to grow 0.5 percent next year.
• According to Statistics Canada, manufacturing sales fell two percent to $70.4 billion in August due to a 3.9 percent decline in petroleum and coal sales and a 4.5 percent drop in chemical manufacturing sales. Meanwhile, wholesale sales in August rose 1.4 percent to a record level of $81.3 billion. Agricultural supply sales rose 13.2 percent while machinery, equipment, and supply sales expanded 1.6 percent.
• The U.S. producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent from August 2022 to September 2022 and 8.5 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. U.S. import prices decreased 1.2 percent in September due to lower fuel and nonfuel prices in September. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.8 percent in September following a 1.7 percent decline in August.
• The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in September and 8.2 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.1 percent from August to September and three percent year-over-year.
• During the week that ended October 8, 228,000 individuals filed for S. unemployment benefits for the first time, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average was 211,500, an increase of 5,000 from a week before. During the week that ended October 1, 1.368 million individuals continued to receive benefits, up 4,000 from the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell, however.