United States, Canada Both Posted Trade Deficits In February

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The U.S. goods and services trade deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8 billion from $130.7 billion in January. The decline reflected a drop in the goods deficit of $8.8 billion to $147 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.8 billion to $24.3 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $117.1 billion, or 86.0 percent, from the same period in 2024. Read more at this link.
• Statistics Canada reported that, in February, the country’s merchandise exports fell by 5.5 percent while imports rose 0.8 percent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance with the world went from a surplus of $3.1 billion in January to a deficit of $1.5 billion in February.
• New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent in February to $594 billion. Shipments rose 0.7 percent to $596.8 billion. Unfilled orders expanded 0.1 percent to more than $1.4 trillion while the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.81, down from 6.84 in January. Inventories increased 0.1 percent to $864.9 billion while the inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in January.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the United States fell to 49.0 percent in March, down from 50.3 percent in February. Readings for employment, new orders, and production all declined last month. Read the full report at this link.
• The S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 in March, the second straight month the reading was below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. The deterioration in March also was the biggest in the reading since the end of 2023. Production, purchasing, and employment all fell last month.
• Manufacturing activity in Texas continued to soften last month. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Texas, its general business activity declined from -8.3 in February to -16.3 in March, the lowest reading since July 2024. One bright spot: business executives reported rising production with the key manufacturing measure rising 15 points to +6. New orders increased three points to zero, while capacity utilization increased six points to -2.3 and shipments remained steady at +6.1.
• U.S. construction spending increased 0.7 percent between January 2025 and February 2025 and 2.9 percent between February 2024 and February 2025. Read the full report at this link.
• The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent in February. Manufacturers added 1,000 net jobs and employment in the sector remained largely steady across types and sectors. Durable goods saw a loss of 3,000 seasonally adjusted positions, while nondurable goods added 4,000. In related news: there were 7.6 million jobs open in the United States in February 2025. There were 482,000 positions available in manufacturing in February, down from 513,000 in January.
• According to Statistics Canada, that country’s economy shed 33,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate increased to 6.7 percent from 6.6 percent in February. Employment declined in wholesale and retail trade along with information, culture, and recreation sectors. Read the full report at this link.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 219,000 during the week that ended March 29, a number that was down by 6,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, first-time claims fell by 1,250 to 223,000. In all, nearly 1.903 million people claimed unemployment benefits during the week that ended March 22. That figure was at a level not seen since November 2021.