Conference Board Says United States Entering Challenging Growth Period

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but MSCI also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Economic Pulse.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 after declining 0.3 percent in July. The LEI was down 3.8 percent during the six-month period between February and August 2023. The Conference Board’s Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said, “With August’s decline, the U.S. Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year.” Read more here.
• U.S. import prices (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm) rose 0.5 percent in August due to surging energy costs. On a year-over-year basis, import prices fell three percent, however, the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Export prices rose 1.3 percent in August, the biggest gain since May 2022. That increase was due to higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies, materials, capital goods, and vehicles.
• According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, manufacturing activity in its region declined overall in September. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August and the firms continued to report a decline in employment. Most future activity indicators improved, however, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months.
• The number of job vacancies in Canada fell by 55,500 to 780,200 in the second quarter, continuing a steady downward trend. On a year-over-year basis, job vacancies declined 210,700 from a record high of 990,900 recorded in the second quarter of 2022.
• According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 201,000 people received federal unemployment benefits for the first time during the week that ended September 16. That figure was down 20,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of first-time claims also fell, as did the number of people who continued to receive benefits. That figure dropped to 1.662 million during the week that ended September 9 from 1.683 million the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also declined.
• The third quarter Met Life-U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index found 66 percent of U.S. small business owners say their business is in good health, a nearly a 10-point increase from the second quarter. Nearly three-quarters, 71 percent, expect revenue to increase next year. That number was highest number since the survey launched in 2017. While small business owners were upbeat about their own company’s health, they were worried about the economy overall. In fact, only 33 percent said the U.S. economy is in good health.
• In other economic news: Canada’s consumer price index rose four percent between August 2022 and August 2023 due mostly to higher prices for gasoline, rent, and mortgage interest; the number of new homes under construction in the United States fell 11.3 percent from July 2023 to August 2023 and 14.8 percent year-over-year; the number of existing homes sold  in the United States fell 0.7 percent from July 2023 to August 2023 and 15.8 percent year-over-year.