Growth Outlooks Mixed For United States, Canada, And Rest Of World
- According to the Organization for Economic Development (OECD) the COVID-19 Delta variant has put a damper on global economic growth. In its latest quarterly economic outlook, the OECD lowered its growth forecasts for the global and U.S. economies in 2021 — its first downgrade since December 2020. The OECD also raised its forecasts for inflation this year. Specifically, the OECD lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2021 to six percent from 6.9 percent. Global growth estimates declined to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent. The Canadian economy is expected to expand 5.4 percent this year. Read the full report here.
- Meanwhile, two other readings regarding future U.S. growth were mixed in August. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the United States increased by 0.9 percent in August to 117.1, a reading that indicates robust growth in the future. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index fell to +0.29 in August from +0.75 in July.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City announced its manufacturing index fell to +22 this month from +29 in August. The bank said, “Factory growth continued to be driven by a faster increase in durable goods, in particular primary metals, computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment, while nondurable goods manufacturing grew more modestly.” Read the full report here.
- According to The Reshoring Initiative, the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a national push to strengthen the domestic supply chain, especially of essential products. As a result, reshoring and foreign direct investment (FDI) job announcements for 2021 are projected to be more than 220,000, a 38 percent increase from 2020 and by far, the highest yearly number recorded to date. Read more here.
- The U.S. Department of Labor announced last week that 351,000 individuals filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time during the week that ended September 18, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s level. The four-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s average.
- In other economic news: the number of new homes under construction in the United States increased 3.9 percent between July 2021 and August 2021 and 17.4 percent between August 2020 and August 2021; the number of new homes sold in the United States rose 1.5 percent from July to August, but was down 24.3 percent year-over-year; and the number of existing homes sold in the United States fell two percent for the month and fell 1.5 percent between August 2020 and August 2021.