Is COVID Delta Variant A Threat To The Global Recovery?
- As MetalMiner reported, U.S. steel imports reached an estimated 2.6 million metric tons in June. The total marked a 13 percent increase from the 2.3 million metric tons the U.S. imported in May. Additionally, through May, U.S. steel imports totaled 10.7 million metric tons, up seven percent from 10 million through the first five months of 2020.
- According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. gross domestic product grew by 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2021, slightly above the 1.5 percent rate for the first quarter. The new growth put the U.S. economy above its pre-pandemic levels, but also was well short of economists’ expectations. While supply-chain disruptions were part of the reason for the tepid report, the report also raised concerns that the nation’s recovery could be disrupted by surging coronavirus cases driven by the Delta variant and the end of federal pandemic aid programs.
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3 percent in Canada in May. That reading followed a 0.5 percent decline in April. Total economic activity was approximately two percent below February 2020’s pre-pandemic level. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors were down as both services-producing (-0.2 percent) and goods-producing industries (-0.4 percent) contracted. Read more here.
- In related news about economic growth: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has boosted its economic forecast for developed countries including the United States and lowered its forecast for emerging markets and developing countries. Specifically, the IMF estimated that advanced economies’ output will increase by 5.6 percent in 2021, up from its April estimate of 5.1 percent. The IMF now expects growth in emerging markets and developing economies to be 6.3 percent, a figure that is down from the 6.7 percent April estimate. The IMF said, “Economies are diverging even further, influenced by differences in the pace of vaccine rollout and policy support. However, smooth and durable recoveries are not assured even in places where infections are seemingly under control.” Read more here.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas factory activity continued its robust expansion in July. The bank’s production index was largely unchanged at 31.0, a reading well above average and indicative of strong output growth, and the new orders index came in at 26.8, quadruple the series average of 6.5. Perceptions of broader business conditions also continued to improve in July. Read the full report here. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, meanwhile, said its composite index rose from +26 in June to +27 in July due to increases in the shipments and employment indexes. Manufacturers were optimistic that business conditions would improve in the coming months, but did indicate they continue to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. Read the full report here.
- The U.S. Department of Commerce announced last week that personal income increased $26.1 billion (0.1 percent) in June 2021 while personal consumption expenditures increased $155.4 billion, or one percent. Read the full report here.
- In the week ending July 24, 2021, 400,000 individuals in the United States filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average was 394,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. Read the full report here. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)
- In other economic news: compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent in the United States for the three-month period ending in June 2021 while wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.4 percent; sales of new homes in the United States fell 6.6 percent between May 2021 and June 2021 and 19.4 percent between June 2020 and June 2021; and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was at 129.1 in July, up from 128.9 in June.