Key Indicator Shows U.S. Growth Softening

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but MSCI also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Economic Pulse.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States, a key gauge of future growth, declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.0. The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023, which is a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022. Read the full report here.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index was -12 in June, down from -1 in May and from -10 in April. The bank said the decline was driven by both durable and non-durable goods, especially by primary metals and print manufacturing. Production, volume of shipments, number of employees, supplier delivery times, and inventories all declined at a faster rate. Click here to read the full report.
• According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 264,000 people filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time during the week that ended June 17, up from 262,000 the week before. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 255,750, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week. The number of individuals who continued to claim federal unemployment benefits fell to 1.759 million during the week that ended June 10, down from 1.775 million the week before. The four-week moving average was 1.77 million, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week.
• In other economic news: retail sales in Canada rose 1.1 percent to $65.9 billion in April due mostly to higher sales at food and beverage stores; the number of new homes under construction in the United States increased 21.7 percent between April 2023 and May 2023 and 5.7 percent between May 2022 and May 2023; and sales of existing homes in the United States rose 0.2 percent between April 2023 and May 2023, but fell 20.4 percent between May 2022 and May 2023.