Manufacturing Output And Small Business Capital Outlay Planning Down

Connecting the Dots monitors major U.S. and Canadian economic announcements, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the small business owner outlook may be cooling. The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100, its third highest level ever, and only 20 percent of small firms are planning capital outlays in the next six months, down seven points from December.
• U.S. industrial production increased 0.5 percent in January even though manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent due to a 5.2 percent decrease in the reading for motor vehicles and parts. The index for mining fell 1.2 percent while the index for utilities jumped 7.2 percent due to the effect of cold temperatures that boosted the demand for heating. Read the full report at this link.
• The combined value of U.S. distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments increased 0.8 percent from November 2024 to December 2024 and 3.1 percent from December 2023 to December 2024. Inventories were down 0.2 percent from November 2024, but up two percent year-over-year. The total business inventories to sales ratio was 1.35, down from 1.37 in December 2023.
• Canadian manufacturing sales increased for the third consecutive month, rising 0.3 percent in December due to gains in 12 of 21 subsectors. Higher sales of petroleum and coal, food products, and primary metals were partially offset by a five percent decline in motor vehicle sales. Compared to December 2023, total sales were 0.3 percent higher.
• Investment in building construction in Canada rose 1.9 percent from November 2024 to December 2024. Gains were recorded across all components. Specifically, the residential sector grew 2.2 percent for the month while the non-residential sector was up 1.3 percent. Year-over-year, building construction rose 4.7 percent.
• U.S. wholesaler inventories fell 0.5 percent in December due to a decline in inventories of durable goods and products. Wholesale sales increased one percent, meanwhile, while the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.31, a number that indicated wholesalers could sell their current stocks faster than in previous months.
• Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.3 percent in January due mostly to higher fuel prices. (Specifically, import fuel prices rose 3.2 percent in January, after increasing 1.7 percent in December.) U.S. export prices rose only 1.3 percent.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 213,000 during the week that ended Feb. 8, a number that was down by 7,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, first-time claims fell to 216,000. In all, nearly 1.85 million people claimed unemployment benefits during the week that ended Feb. 1, a number that was down by 36,000 from the week before.
• In other economic news: Real average hourly earnings for U.S. workers was unchanged between December 2024 and January 2025; the U.S. consumer price index increased 0.5 percent between December and January and three percent between January 2024 and January 2025; and the U.S. producer price index rose 0.4 percent between December and January and 3.5 percent year-over-year.