MAR Shows Metals Shipments Mostly Down In August

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Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• According to MSCI’s Metals Activity Report (MAR), for the month of August 2023 steel shipments decreased by one percent in the United States and by 1.1 percent in Canada compared to August 2022. Aluminum shipments fell year-over-year by 4.8 percent in the United States, but were up 7.1 percent in Canada. Read more about the MAR here.
• Canadian gross domestic product was essentially unchanged from June 2023 to July 2023, remaining steady at C$2.082 trillion. Economists had been expecting GDP to rise 0.1 percent for the month, after it declined 0.2 percent from May to June. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the economy expanded 1.1 percent. In related news: the number of job vacancies in Canada declined by 5.8 percent in July. Read more here.
• Manufacturing activity slowed in the Midwest and in Texas in September, but improved in the Central Atlantic region. Specifically, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index fell to -8 in September, down from zero in August. The production, shipments, and new orders indexes all declined significantly. The slowdown was due mainly to decreases in the durable goods sector, particularly metal manufacturing. Read the full report here. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said its Texas manufacturing index fell from -17.2 in August to -18.1 in September. Production did improve, however, rising from -11.2 in August to +7.9 last month, and the new orders index jumped from -15.8 to -5.2. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s manufacturing index increased from -7 in August to +5 in September due to improvements in shipments, new orders, and employment. Read more here.
• The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation, increased 0.4 percent from July 2023 to August 2023 and 3.5 percent from August 2022 to August 2023. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.1 percent for the month and 3.9 percent year-over-year.
• During the week that ended September 23, 204,000 individuals filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of first-time claims also rose. During the week that ended September 16, 1.67 million U.S. residents continued to receive federal jobless benefits, up 12,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell, however.
• The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidencefell to 103.0 in September from 108.7 in August due to diminishing outlooks for the near-term; the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 68.1 in September from 69.5 in August; and new home sales in the United States fell 8.7 percent from July 2023 to August 2023, but rose 5.8 percent from August 2022 to August 2023.