Mixed Readings For North American Metals Shipments

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• MSCI’s latest MAR indicates a mixed trend for steel and aluminum shipments across the United States and Canada. In the United States, steel shipments saw a marginal 1.2 percent increase between February 2024 and February 2025. It was the first rise in shipments since September 2024. Aluminum declines moderated, but shipments were still down five percent year-over-year. The slide in Canadian service center activity persisted, meanwhile, though to a lesser degree. Specifically, Canadian steel shipments fell 7.6 percent while aluminum shipments were off 10.6 percent between February 2024 and February 2025.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada grew 0.4 percent in January as both goods-producing and services-producing industries improved. Goods-producing industries contributed the most to the increase, rising 1.1 percent in January, the largest increase since October 2021.
• S. industrial production increased 0.7 percent in February after rising 0.3 percent the month before. Manufacturing output was up 0.9 percent, due largely to an 8.5 percent increase in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The index for mining gained 2.8 percent while the reading for utilities decreased 2.5 percent. Find out more information at this link.
• In the United States, the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments fell 0.8 percent between December 2024 and January 2025, but was up 3.5 percent from January 2024. Inventories increased 0.3 percent for the month and 2.3 percent year-over-year. The total business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.37, down from 1.38 a year earlier.
• Regional manufacturing readings in March indicated a weakening in the industry. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index for its region fell nearly 26 points in March to -20.0. The decline, which was the largest in nearly two years, was mostly due to significant declines in new orders and shipments. Business optimism also deteriorated for the second consecutive month. Read the full report at this link. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slower pace in March. Specifically, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general activity index fell to +12.5 in March from +18.1 the previous month. The employment index rose to its highest level since October 2022, but new orders and shipments lost ground. Read more at this link. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond said manufacturing in the Central Atlantic region slowed in March. Its composite index fell to -4 from +6 in February due largely to a notable decrease, from +12 to -7, in the shipments index. The new orders and employment readings also fell slightly. Read the full report at this link. Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s index for the Midwest was -2 in March, up from -5 in February, but still below the zero mark that separates expansion from contraction. The nondurable manufacturing sector drove the weak reading, the bank said. Overall production was flat last month while the number of employees and volume of shipments declined at a milder pace. The future composite index fell from +14 in February to +10 in March as expectations for production, new orders, and employment lowered. Read the full report at this link.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 224,000 during the week that ended March 22, a number that was down by 1,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, first-time claims fell by 4,750 to 224,000. In all, nearly 1.856 million people claimed unemployment benefits during the week that ended March 15, a number that was down by 25,000 from the week before.
• In other economic news: the U.S. personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.4 percent in February; Canada’s consumer price index increased 1.1 percent from January 2025 to February 2025 and 2.6 percent from February 2024 to February 2025; retail sales in Canada fell 0.6 percent in January due mostly to declines in sales from motor vehicle and parts dealers; new home sales in the United States increased 1.8 percent between January and February and 5.1 percent year-over-year; existing home sales in the United States increased 4.2 percent between January and February, but declined 1.2 percent year-over-year; the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in the United States fell for the fourth month in a row, dropping by 7.2 points in March to 92.9; and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell from 64.7 in February to 57.0 in March.