U.S., Canadian Steel Shipments Fell In January

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• For the third month in a row, MSCI’s MAR found U.S. and Canadian steel and aluminum shipments were down. Specifically, U.S. service center steel shipments fell 1.4 percent from January 2024 to January 2025. Shipments of aluminum products decreased by 9.8 percent from the same month in 2024. Canadian service center steel shipments were down 15.7 percent year-over-year, meanwhile, while shipments of aluminum products fell by 14.9 percent.
• Regional manufacturing readings for February have been mixed so far. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, manufacturing in the New Jersey-eastern Pennsylvania region softened this month. The bank’s general activity index fell from +44.3 to +18.1 due to the fact that new orders, employment, and shipments readings all declined. Read the full report at this link. In contrast, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported manufacturing activity in its region improved this month, but also indicated definite areas of weakness. That bank’s general business conditions index climbed 18 points to +5.7 as new orders and shipments grew moderately. Employment levels moved lower, however, and though firm leaders said they expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism about the outlook dropped significantly. Read the full report at this link.
• U.S. business inventories declined 0.2 percent from November 2024 to December 2024 while wholesale inventories fell 0.5 percent, retail inventories declined 0.4 percent, and manufacturing inventories rose 0.4 percent. Overall business sales increased 0.8 percent due to a one percent advance in wholesale sales. The inventories-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35 from 1.37 in November.
• The U.S. housing market continues to weaken ever so slightly. The number of new homes under construction in the United States fell 9.8 percent from December 2024 to January 2025 and 0.7 percent from January 2024 to January 2025. The number of existing homes sold in the United States fell 4.9 percent from December to January, but was up two percent year-over-year.
• Retail sales in Canada ended 2024 on the upswing, increasing 2.5 percent between November 2024 and December 2024. Sales were up 2.4 percent for all of the fourth quarter of 2024 and 1.3 percent for all of 2024.
• The Conference Board’s index of CEO confidence rose by nine points in the first quarter of 2025 to 60, the reading’s highest level in three years. For the first time since early 2022, the index was well above the 50 mark, indicating CEOs have shifted from the cautious optimism that prevailed in 2024 to confident optimism.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 219,000 during the week that ended Feb. 15, a number that was up by 5,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, first-time claims fell by 1,000 to 215,250. In all, nearly 1.869 million people claimed unemployment benefits during the week that ended Feb. 8, a number that was up by 24,000 from the week before.
• In other economic news: Canada’s consumer price index increased 0.1 percent between December 2024 and January 2025 and 1.9 percent between January 2024 and January 2025; the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January; and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)for the United States fell 0.3 percent in January 2025 to 101.5 after a 0.1 percent increase in December 2024. Overall, the LEI recorded a 0.9 percent decline in the six-month period ending January 2025, much less than the 1.7 percent decline the LEI had seen over the previous six months.